The Economist on the coming age of the elderly:
Thanks to a combination of growing longevity and falling birth rates, the average age of populations, first in the world’s rich countries and, after a time lag, in emerging nations too, has been rising inexorably. By 2050 the world will have about 2 billion people aged over 60, three times as many as today. In parts of the rich world, mainly Japan and western Europe, that age group already makes up nearly a quarter of the population. By 2050 their share will rise to 30-40%, and even in the—much younger—developing world it will go up to 25-30%.
Why is this scary?
In other words, those of working age will have to support a vastly increased number of dependants. In rich countries there are now roughly four workers for every pensioner. By 2050 there will be little more than two. Those two will have to work mighty hard to keep that pensioner supplied with reasonable retirement benefits and decent health care unless something is done. And done soon: in western Europe the working population is likely to start shrinking as soon as next year or 2010. The same is true for China, which largely because of its one-child policy will grow old before it becomes properly rich.
Tags: aging, demographics
